Lessons from Darwin — and why we must bolster the values of science and truth.

In the hallway of London’s Natural History Museum is a statue of Charles Darwin, perhaps the most influential scientist of all time.  His On the Origin of Species changed our understanding of the natural world, reshaped religious beliefs, and (for all except a few creationist cranks) has become part of the core curriculum of human knowledge. Indeed, so great is his fame, that when I last visited the museum, there were several people taking selfies with his image.   

Perhaps that’s because, unlike many other complex discoveries, Darwin’s theory of evolution is easily communicable and widely understood in layman’s terms. And yet, despite this (or perhaps because of it), he harbored grave concern for any misrepresentation and reputedly delayed its publication for almost thirty years. More recent historical research suggests the hiatus was equally the result of his determination to ensure its accuracy, combined with a robustness of evidence.

How things have changed in the decades since! 

Celebrities and Pseudo-Science

Hollywood can be a Poor Example

A short walk from the museum is Harvey Nichols department store, which, until the recent pandemic, housed a concession from a famous Hollywood backed company, the alternative lifestyle and wellness store founded by that is only a famous actress.  There, in its cool minimalist surroundings, you could buy all manner of craziness, from bee sting therapy to bodily insertions that promote longevity and a better life.  The store may have gone, but the peddling of pseudo-science continues to thrive online, as does a more general monetization and politicization of unfounded assertions masquerading as truth.

This Hollywood actress’s ability to persuade otherwise sensible folk to part with their hard-earned cash is surely a result of her being a famous and attractive actress. The implication that in purchasing from the store, you might become a little more like her image is central to the appeal. Given that the business has been valued at over $250m, it would seem this is more important to many than any analysis of the snake oil she’s selling or her qualifications for doing so. And sadly, she’s not alone. 

Great Tennis Player, but is he qualified in other things?

Many sports stars have millions social media followers. One in particular is arguably one of the greatest tennis player of all time, but it seems that’s not enough for his ego. Hence, we’re treated to his views on using the energy of our body to cure ailments and how polluted water might be purified through the power of gratitude! As for his qualifications? This is a man who organized a tennis tournament during the Covid pandemic and, if only by implication, suggested that people do not need a life-saving vaccination against the consequences of a pathogen that the World Health Organization estimates has killed seven million people.

More Examples of Bad Influencers

The examples above are relatively mild in the scheme of the critical depths to which we’ve sunk. Consider for a moment the impact of the alt-right’s Alex Jones, a man who denied the reality of the Sandy Hook murders. And while you do so, maybe spare a thought for those parents who, after having lost their children in that attack, were relentlessly harassed by his mindless followers as the US courts have thankfully recognized, his mendacious and unfounded tirades are not without consequence and should not be tolerated. There are any number of equally (and arguably more) dangerous influencers I might have highlighted, from Trump to Musk to the truly vile Andrew Tate… 

Fake News and False Truths are Threats to Everyone

But the key point will already be understood: the proliferation of fake news and false truths is one of the most serious threats to our society.  The erosion of our ability to separate fact from fiction is not just impacting those with more cash than sense; it’s undermining our politics, our health care, and in the case of the alt-right and the extreme left, a large portion of our decency and common sense! 

But if disinformation is now dominating our public debate, the question is, what do we do about it?  How, in a world where, for example, 62% of Americans get their news from social media, do we balance the value of free speech with a need for the vetting of untruths?  And how do we counter the seductive appeals to base emotions and bigotry that are so easy to stir up and yet so difficult to refute in a culture that’s increasingly shaped by the intolerance of identity politics?

Regulation is Needed

There is surely a role for regulation here. While recognizing it’s a minefield, I believe we must embrace more robust guidelines for public discourse and be prepared to enforce them, especially in fields that directly impact public health or political processes. This isn’t about Big Brother censorship; it’s about recognizing that the freedoms we have fought so hard to secure require us to insist on core values of truth, mutual respect, and fairness. The alternative is that we continue to tolerate a toxic cocktail of pseudo-science, hate speech, and violent rhetoric, and that’s been the hallmark of despotic regimes throughout history. 

But regulation is not enough, nor should it go too far. 

As a liberal with an academic background, I’d be one of the last to want to curtail a robust exchange of views. Indeed, it’s a virtue of science that it takes pride in testing, vigorously challenging, and, where necessary, changing its opinion. This is why, more than ever, we need to promote critical literacy in our schools, with an emphasis on the process as much as the outputs. In France, philosophy is part of the core curriculum, not to impose a particular dogma but rather to encourage debate and help young people distinguish between credible claims and unfounded assertions. We could learn a lot from that mindset. 

Meanwhile, we could take a lesson from Charles Darwin. His search for the truth was a model of evidential diligence; his self-refection and care for the consequences of his words were the antithesis of today’s unqualified and narcissistic celebrities. It’s no coincidence, and, to my mind, a matter of great hope, that he’s arguably the greatest social influencer of all time.  We should all salute him (or take selfies by his statue), for in that respect alone, his example is as relevant and as radical today as when his likeness was first set in stone.

Turning the Tide

Originally Published in Fair Value

Shortly After Taking Office, President Joe Biden gave a speech on the progress of the Covid-19 vaccination program. He offered hope for a July 4th Independence Day and asked that all Americans work together, playing their part to help reinstate the personal freedoms that we previously took for granted. In a refreshingly candid response to those who would lift restrictions immediately, he summarised the prerequisite with one word.

President Biden Coming Into Office

President Biden was addressing a particular and immediate issue, and his approach was more driven by scientific advice than any deeper reflection. His reasoning was simply that to secure the progress already made, we needed time for more people to be vaccinated, time to assess the impact on transmission, and time for the tide to irreversibly turn.

But listening to the speech, I was struck not so much by his welcome appeals to common cause and collective endeavor, but by the contrast between his plea for patience and the expectations of progress that we have come to expect. Indeed, he himself had set ambitious goals for his first “hundred days” in office, a phrase that’s commonplace in the world of business, fueled by the belief that pace is vital to success.

First 100 Days in Office

There is much truth in this view. While the Hundred Days slogan can be an overused catchphrase, its underlying principle is that progress requires affirmative action; and that indecision at moments of change leads only to entrenchment and resistance. Or in plainer Anglo-Saxon, sleepy organizations sometimes need a kick up the proverbial…!

Few businesses making an acquisition or merger today would be encouraged by their advisors to reflect on the intricacies of every adjustment they propose to make. The mainstream view is that if the consequence of pace is occasionally some collateral damage results, then this needs to be seen in the context of the counterfactual stasis that comes with prevarication.

Moore’s Law and it’s Effect

We believe, too, that change is coming ever faster. As long ago as the 1960s, Gordon Moore predicted that the power of integrated circuit boards would double every couple of years, leading to exponential digital progress. Only now is Moore’s Law reaching its threshold, with compound (not absolute) rates beginning to slow. The advance in technology is unquestionably the most transformative change of the last half-century; its reach touches every aspect of our lives, from medicine to machinery, warfare to welfare, education to employment.

But I wonder if we are not sometimes too dazzled by the consultants, the statistics, and an over-emphasis on digital technology as the benchmark of change.

Change Takes Time

In writing Fair Value, I have reflected deeply on the beliefs underpinning my life and career. And the most striking thing is not how much they have altered but rather how little they have—and how gradual and considered their evolution has been. We do not transform our beliefs overnight, and nor can our behaviors which is true of our societies and the communities and organizations (individual or collective), adapt in the way of digital components. The which are their constituent parts.

The reality is that more profound change takes time.

Business Change Takes Time

The values and instincts which guide our paths are deeply embedded. Our sense of community, the people we love, our faiths, and our aspirations. All these do not alter at speed. This is why dictatorships have consistently failed to suppress a desire for freedom-or for that matter, why new democracies often face resistance from within. In business, the idea that we can culturally transform organizations in short order is usually a recipe for disappointment, if not outright failure.

None of this is to suggest we should not address injustices with the urgency they deserve. The slow progress on issues such as gender equality, diversity and inclusion, educational opportunity, and true meritocracy is a stain on our democracies. It is right that we demand progress and call out those organizations that make only token efforts, just as we should look at ourselves and be honest in declaring the ways we might do more.

The environmental crisis is a case in point; there is a clear responsibility to make bold changes today, even if the impacts will not be felt for decades to come; that’s exactly why we need to act now. But even then, we need also to be patient and mindful that parts of the world are less well placed to take the radical steps we might wish to see and less well informed of the consequences of delay.

Patience is Not Always Easy

Meanwhile, we are all impatient for those changes that are dear to our hearts. Like those who would ease the pandemic restrictions tomorrow, I, too, have concerns that I wish were addressed more swiftly. In the US and the Europe, there are whole regions that have been left behind by the impacts of globalization. Their people want action, a reversal of the trend, a recognition that what’s been lost needs replacing with more than just hope.

I have my doubts about the swift achievability of that goal, for experience has shown it to be an intractable problem. As with so many of the challenges we face, the ways forward are myriad and often untravelled, and in common with the opening theme of this piece, they will take time.

In writing these essays, I’ve come to pursue change for the good,

increasingly to understand that we must first and foremost set our compass to the values that offer the best opportunities for hope and flourishing. For only this way can we navigate the paths that will inevitably lead us in less than straight lines? We also need to recognize that time is part of the equation of progress and that a little patience can help us resolve it more neatly and completely than our restless natures might wish.

The tide, as they say, will turn only on its hour.

A Deep Dive into Talent Management and Development with Jos Opdeweegh

When it comes to unraveling the secrets behind effective talent management and development, Jos Opdeweegh is a seasoned expert. In a captivating dialogue, Opdeweegh paints a vivid picture of the significance of this critical organizational facet, emphasizing the need for standardization while shedding light on the stages that compose its core.

Navigating the Talent Landscape

Opdeweegh sets the stage by introducing talent management as a pivotal module within the larger framework of the Connect Way standardized operating model. This holistic approach underscores the need to streamline processes for optimal outcomes. As he delves deeper, Opdeweegh breaks down the multifaceted journey of talent management into its essential components.

The Evolutionary Stages of Talent Management

Through Opdeweegh’s insightful narration, the stages of talent management come to life. Monthly interactions emerge as the cornerstone, facilitating a continuous dialogue around objectives and performance assessments. The ultimate aim? To transform these routine interactions into a wellspring of inspiration, fostering an environment of perpetual growth and improvement.

Unveiling the Strategic Blueprint

Jos leaves no stone unturned as he unveils the intricate blueprint that underpins talent management’s success. He explains how these regular interactions serve as checkpoints, enabling a nuanced understanding of individual development. The significance of consistency over time becomes evident, as it serves as a litmus test for identifying high-potential individuals who could shape the future.

Charting the Course with the Comprehensive Talent Map

Creating a comprehensive talent map becomes an art form under Opdeweegh’s guidance. He walks us through the meticulous ranking of individuals based on their potential, each fitting into categories that span from role models and developing talents to core contributors and those in need of additional coaching. This masterful orchestration informs a robust succession plan that keeps the organizational engine running smoothly.

Embracing the Paradigm Shift

Opdeweegh’s wisdom shines as he advocates for a shift from the traditional, formal approaches to talent management. In their place, he champions regular, informal conversations that coalesce into key performance indicators (KPIs). The brilliance of this approach lies in its simplicity—three objectives and three performance rating criteria encapsulate the essence of progress, with a strong emphasis on upholding core values.

A Tapestry of Regular Interactions and Objectives

Jos’s insights are not confined to the office walls. He advocates for regular interactions throughout the year, fostering growth beyond the typical boundaries. These interactions can take place in a variety of settings, from informal meetings to commutes, exemplifying flexibility and authenticity. The fluidity of objectives, grounded in transparency and openness, becomes the cornerstone of sustainable business evolution.

Illuminating the Path of Succession Planning

Succession planning, according to Opdeweegh, is the guardian of a thriving business’s future. He outlines the crucial role it plays in identifying and preventing talent gaps, ensuring a seamless transition of skills. Armed with a comprehensive understanding of the talent within the organization, businesses can avert potential roadblocks that might otherwise hinder growth.

Harmonizing Succession Planning with Continuous Improvement

Opdeweegh seamlessly weaves the concepts of succession planning and continuous improvement into a harmonious narrative. Continuous improvement takes center stage, driving the betterment of processes, decision-making speed, creativity, and more. Opdeweegh’s vision illustrates that every organizational initiative should be intrinsically linked with this perpetual betterment, culminating in a steadfast commitment to sustainable progress.

Elevating People: The Ultimate Imperative

In the grand tapestry of business, Opdeweegh reminds us that people stand as the most precious threads. This realization infuses every facet of his methodology, encompassing the continuous evolution of individuals within a complex and ever-evolving business environment. With an emphasis on a friendly and open approach, Opdeweegh’s methodology nurtures the growth of people—a truly invaluable asset.

Embracing Core Values Through Methodology

Opdeweegh’s insights are more than just theory; they seamlessly align with core organizational values. By embracing creativity, rapid decision-making, and accessibility, this approach becomes a living embodiment of the values that drive success. This philosophy fosters an environment where teamwork flourishes, underpinned by openness and camaraderie.

In this enlightening dialogue, Jos Opdeweegh masterfully unravels the intricate tapestry of talent management and development. His wisdom transforms abstract concepts into actionable strategies, offering a roadmap for businesses to flourish in an ever-evolving landscape.

Light on the Horizon

Originally Published in Fair Value

ON 8 DECEMBER 2020 in the city of Coventry in the UK, Margaret Kennan received the first publicly administered dose of the Pfizer/ BioNTech vaccine. At ninety-one years old, she described the experience as “the best early birthday present,” reflecting worldwide joy that, just possibly, this marked the beginning of the end of the COVID-19 pandemic. As I write, three weeks later, millions across the globe have been inoculated, markets have rebounded and we approach the New Year with rays of light that were well below the horizon only a few months ago.

And yet, dark clouds remain. Because, for all that the vaccine— and equivalent treatments from other biotech companies were a triumph of science before the first shot was administered there were protestations from some quarters. Fueled by social media, conspiracy theorists played on the fears of an already nervous population, peddling claims at times so ludicrous that they beggar belief. In what is almost the ultimate case of repeating your message regardless, they’ve succeeded in spooking a small but not insubstantial section of the public into questioning whether they might skip the treatment just when it’s needed most.

Wild Speculative Theories Continue

There are multiple issues at play here, and not the time or space to deal with them all. I’m going to consign claims that the vaccine will track us via 5G communication or harbors secretly implanted microchips to the dustbin of implausibility in which they belong. Whether we should allow airtime to such theories strikes me as a fine balance between freedom of expression versus the potential for public harm. Time will no doubt expose the nonsense, but sadly it seems there will always be some who choose to disregard the common-sense reasoning by which they lead their daily lives.

More concerning than the unhinged conspirators, are the mumblings that the vaccines are medically unsafe, that they’ve been developed too quickly, and the safest route is to pass on the treatment. What we have here is the consequence of a not unreasonable first question (can a vaccine be developed in under a year?) combined with a mistrust of our political leaders and a misunderstanding of science, to produce a spiral of doubt that risks undermining the whole enterprise. Or putting the whole thing more bluntly, we have a highly vocal section of society that wants the pandemic to end but prefers to hang back in the line, leaving the putative risk to others. 

Academic Term Free-riding

This is classic free-riding, a term usually reserved for scholars, but which most of us know as not pulling your weight. In academic terms, freeriding occurs when a party makes no contribution to an enterprise but reaps the same benefits as those whose labor and sacrifice made it possible. Economists regard this as a market failure; philosophers consider it a moral one. To understand why, it’s helpful to describe it in more concrete terms.

Free-ridding Economic Context

Imagine you lived in a small pre-industrial agrarian community that needed to irrigate its lands to improve production. All the farmers agree to work together to create a series of ditches and channels, giving two days of labor each week in a collective endeavor to deliver a benefit for all. Except, when work begins, one farmer, whose land is in the middle of the project, decides not to take part, focusing instead on building a swanky new house. When the irrigation system is in place, his land benefits, and his production increases just the same as the others, and yet, had everyone followed his behavior, the project would not have been possible.

Intuitively we know this is wrong. This is why John Rawles in his seminal Theory of Justice identifies a prohibition on crude freeriding as one of the key principles of a fair society-basing this assertion is not just on abstract reasoning, but on focus group after focus group coming to exactly the same conclusion. In the everyday world, it’s an economic and social problem that we’ve developed multiple routes (from taxation to copyright laws) to tackle. But when it comes to medical interventions, we hesitate at compulsion to comply.

Free-riding and Medical Free Choice

And that’s understandable because medical procedures raise some especially difficult issues. Questions of free choice and even religious belief come into play and we are rightly cautious of compelling individuals in what might be seen as personal space. However, it’s equally clear that to meaningfully address the biggest social disruption since the Second World War, we need the vast majority of us to play our part in the vaccine program. The problem is particularly acute because those who refuse inoculation increase the risk for others by raising the likelihood that the virus will linger and mutate.

Right Not to Comply

On the whole, western democracies have relied on personal benefits rather than community obligations to drive a voluntary uptake. As herd immunity builds and our collective risk recedes, we tend to forebear those few who chose to take a different path. Those societies, with a greater emphasis on social cohesion, would take a less tolerant view of their “right” to not comply.

The judgment is a delicate one to make, and not without real and tangible consequences. Only recently, there were outbreaks of measles in the UK that can be directly linked to the now spurious claims about the safety of the MMR vaccine and a consequent reluctance by certain community groups to have their children vaccinated. Many parents who refused cited a belief that they need not worry because of wider herd immunity and that they were concerned about (mis)reported side effects. Their children, who subsequently contracted the disease, are the ones who paid the price of that folly.

Right Not to Comply and Business Leadership

Business leaders will face similar issues, for if a company is not a collective endeavor with responsibility to both individuals and wider stakeholders, then what is? What, for example, should be the limits on our expectations of employees? Can we legitimately insist on the vaccination of all colleagues, save perhaps for those with genuine medical or faith-based reasons for exclusion? And what of our customers in certain sectors (cruise liners, concerts, and sporting events spring to mind) might we insist that proof of vaccination is a pre-requisite of our supplying a service? I suspect, at least in the short term, that some will.

More widely than the recent pandemic, business has an important role to play in nudging behaviors for the communal good. The organizations in which we work are, for many of us, the main place of close interaction with others outside our families. While we may not use the term freeriding, we intuitively know that we have obligations to our colleagues: “Not pulling your weight” is widely called out in terms of performance; living by our values is common currency in the modern workplace… We expect our colleagues to have our backs in the widest sense of that term, behaving in ways that respect our individuality but also recognize our responsibility to the shared endeavor.

Public Leadership and Private Flouting

This is why leaders in business and public life have a particular responsibility to live by the values they espouse. In the UK, a number of senior politicians and key advisors have been exposed to flouting the social distancing and lockdown directives-survey after survey has shown that their behavior lost the trust of the British public at a critical time in controlling the pandemic. The reason is simple, those who make the rules must measure up to them more stringently than most for not to do so is free-riding in its worst possible form.

Leaders Should Be a Model to Others

Leaders must also recognize that their behavior is a model for others and with this comes responsibility that can sometimes transcend our interests and beliefs. In the US, President Trump’s long-time refusal to wear masks and faux-macho posturing in the face of the virus will undoubtedly have cost many lives. Imagine the doubt that would have been sown if the same bravado were applied to the efficacy of a vaccine? As I write this article, Israel is leading the world in the inoculation of its citizens-interestingly, Prime Minister Netanyahu was very publicly one of the first in line.

Science Evidence Will Win Out

Looking to the immediate future, I expect the scientific evidence will win out: that our desire to end the misery of lockdown-not to mention the avoidable loss of life creates sufficient incentive without compulsion. Many of those who are disinclined to take the vaccine will reassess their views as the benefits become clear; the peddlers of conspiracies will no doubt find other outlets to feed their toxic paranoia. Ultimately, good sense will prevail.

And on this note, I’m hopeful in a wider sense. For Margaret Keenan was right, the vaccine is indeed the best early birthday present-not just for her, but for the world. And, as those rays of light I spoke of earlier begin to brighten, there is surely an opportunity to show what collective will and community endeavor can achieve. We are bigger and better than the free-riders in our midst. We can (and should) legislate and compel where absolutely necessary, but our most powerful weapon is to actively play our part, living by the values and behaviors we would hope others do too, and quietly dishonoring those who do not.

Leadership and Our Most Powerful Tool in a Time of Crisis

Originally Published in Fair Value

The Coronavirus Pandemic is a crisis in a form we haven’t seen for generations-not only because of the scale of mortality (which is unbearably tragic, yet hopefully less than many military conflicts) but because of its global nature, its stealthy attributes, our wretched ability to control its spread, and perhaps most of all, the rude awakening that there are limits to the power of human ingenuity in the face of unrestrained nature.

For all our scientific progress, the justified response of the developed world has essentially been little different from medieval times-isolate, wash your hands, and be wary of strangers. Making matters worse, the entangled nature of modern society means these tactics are harder to achieve than in centuries past. But if there is any light in this dark hour, it is surely in our vastly greater potential to communicate and marshal our actions in a coordinated and steadfast manner. In this respect, leadership is arguably our most powerful tool in tackling the tasks that lie ahead.

What is a Crisis?

A crisis is defined as a moment of intense difficulty or danger, a situation when critical decisions must be made. Specifically, it is a time of turning points when the actions we choose will steer us to either recovery or disaster. Leadership in these circumstances requires more than bravado or gesture politics; it needs a cool head, an ability to take others with us, and a clarity of purpose as well as strength and consistency of will. The internet-especially social media, is currently awash with advice, often with a heavy emphasis on historical examples. To use Nassim Nicholas Taleb‘s phrase, the Coronavirus is a Black Swan event if we look at the specifics of our situation, there are precious few parallels to draw on. 

3 Principles of Leadership Always Apply

Direct history lessons are not especially helpful, but the principles of good leadership still apply: 

  • Willingness to listen and learn, 
  • Focus on the common good,
  • Clarity and consistency in our messaging

COVID Made Leadership Shine

All of us recognize these qualities because, in the current circumstances, we are looking for them in our politicians and influencers-just as we can sense the division that’s sown by some of the more closed, partisan, and vastly incoherent responses we’ve witnessed.

The challenge for leaders is that in this moment of greatest uncertainty, the need to set aside political considerations, to apply measures that have proven to be successful elsewhere and provide clarity of purpose and direction is more essential than ever.

Bertand Russell and Crisis Management 

The philosopher Bertrand Russell wrote that in such circumstances- when the facts and outcomes are at their most opaque, we must focus on the best evidence and reasoning we have, however imperfect it may be. And critically, we must then be resolute until, and unless, new evidence suggests otherwise. Russell was talking more about intellectual ideas than crisis management, but his point is still relevant. 

Leadership Can’t Please Everyone

Leadership, almost by definition, will never please all parties, nor is it intended to. There will always be differences of opinion as to the route we could take—and these should be considered carefully. There comes a point when a path must be chosen. A leader is someone who forges rather than seeks consensus, as Martin Luther King Jr. is attributed with noting. And ideally, that consensus should help to shape our actions beyond the immediate hiatus. 

Taleb’s Black Swan Event

For in returning to the definition of a Black Swan event, our world will necessarily be different once the crisis has passed. Think of the various responses to the dissolution of the Soviet Union, and how the decisions which followed have impacted those countries. The contrast between the outcome of the bold action taken by Germany in uniting its country is in stark contrast to the grim realities of many former Soviet states.

SARS Affected How Countries Acted

In drawing lessons from the past-albeit tangential in their nature-it is relevant that Germany acted with speed as well as clarity of vision. And in returning to the present, it is undoubtedly significant that those countries with direct experience in containing the SARS virus have taken some of the strictest and most immediate of measures. Proactively focusing on containment and slowing the spread. In contrast, contemplate the graphs of infection levels and mortality peaks in those countries where it quickly became too late to follow their lead.

Judge Leaders By Results, Not Rhetoric

While I regret that many of us are still in stark denial about the severity of what we have experienced and what may still lie ahead, nonetheless, we will get through this crisis and, in time, assess its consequences with the benefit of hindsight. Ultimately, I suspect and hope we will judge our leaders by their results more than their rhetoric. Meanwhile, it’s vital that we, all of us, hold onto something less tangible but no less vital for what’s to come, that is, hope. For it is our collective belief in a brighter future that most drives and sustains all of human progress. And, at this perilous time, that is perhaps the most powerful tool of all.

The Moral Maze of Decision-Making

Originally Published in Fair Value

As I sit down to write this article in the solitude of my study, there are people gathering in churches across the United States, encouraged by their preachers to come together for worship. In a secular equivalent, the politically faithful are being urged to attend party rallies over the coming weeks. And all of this in the midst of a Coronavirus pandemic where the clear scientific advice is that public assemblies will lead to the seeding of infection and a significantly greater loss of life.

It’s not my purpose to criticize the actions of those who choose to attend their churches or gatherings. These people are not foolish, nor can we assume they are indifferent to the suffering of others. My tendency to put caution over civil liberties is a personal view, and the public mood is seldom characterized by universal agreement, even if a sober consideration of the facts were possible. When the issues have become politicized, as is certainly true in this case, it’s inevitable that we’ll see passion on either side.

Ethical Trade-Offs Happen

But despite these caveats, I’m still left pondering and troubled by the stark conflict between the near-universal advice of independent experts on the one hand and the actions of those influencers who have an interest in a different outcome, on the other. Perhaps my discomfort is rooted in the notion that this friction is not unique to politics or pandemics. In some form or other, ethical trade-offs are inherent to most businesses of some scale, and the value judgments we make in resolving them are a signature of our leadership.

Tobacco Industry as a Negative example

The behavior of the tobacco industry is a case study of the moral pressures within corporations. Over many decades, the leading firms marketed their products as safe and socially desirable despite clear evidence that smoking was both highly addictive and a direct contributor to premature deaths. A culture of denial fostered resistance to health warnings, restrictions on advertising, or any other measures that might discourage sales. In what has become an archetypal example of ethics vs. economics, the historic practices of the tobacco industry have been rightly condemned.

Packaging with an Eye for the Environment

While this is one of the clearest of cases, there are countless others where the ethical considerations are less obvious and prominent in the public consciousness. In the sphere of logistics, for example, how do we best balance obligations to shareholders with a responsibility for the environment? Should vehicle manufacturers have a duty to lead on low emissions, or is it reasonable for them to wait for legislation that creates a level playing field? And what of biodegradable packaging, fair-trade sourcing, or raising wages above a strictly competitive threshold? When first movers bear the burden of risk, is it ethical to hold back from the morally principled but commercially disadvantageous course?

Long-term View Doesn’t Always Add Clarity

There are some who would seek to deny the existence of the conflict, arguing that an appraisal of long-term costs and benefits will show the right path forward, leading to the appropriate balance in the medium- or long term. Perhaps so, but it’s significant that few of those taking this stance are at the sharp end of business. It’s easy to promote an ethical utopia when all is academic and removed. You’re the third-placed player in a market, pressured on all sides by competition and expectations; try convincing your employees that you should be at the bleeding edge of ethical change.

Doing the Right Thing

Even a lesser goal of playing our part or doing the right thing assumes that the moral course is relatively clear and divisible. In practice, we live in an interconnected world, where our actions-no matter how well meaning-can have a butterfly effect that is beyond prediction. We should be skeptical of supposed solutions that take insufficient account of their own uncertainty. For all of the urgency of those passionate about change (the activist environmental movement is a good example here), history has shown that the messy process of evolution is usually a surer and safer route to success than five-year plans or Arcadian visions of great leap forward.

Competing Virtues and the Moral Minefield

And what about the multiple instances in which we are faced with a choice between competing virtues? My opening example is ultimately a tension between the civil liberties we have come to expect and a desire to protect the health of the wider population. Article 11 of the Human Rights Act of 1998 seeks to guarantee freedom of assembly and association but caveats this with proportionate restrictions that protect the health and freedoms of other people. The critical word in that clause is ‘proportionate,’ but unfortunately there is no strict definition we can turn to. 

So how, as organizational leaders, do we navigate this moral minefield?

5 Principled Pragmatic Maxims to Guide Descion Making

I’d propose that for most of us, the way through is not to become philosophers but to pursue a course of what I call principled pragmatism. As that label suggests, we should focus more on the optimum than the perfect. It’s close to what Aristotle would call the Golden Mean path between deficiency and excess, underpinned by good intentions and care for others.

And more tangibly, I’d offer five maxims that we could all adopt regardless of circumstance. 

Be agnostic

Be agnostic. When considering the thorniest of issues, I find it helpful to ask, ‘what course would I choose if I didn’t yet know how it impacted me?’ Would I, for example, introduce universal healthcare care if my immediate or future requirement for healthcare was not revealed until after I’d made the choice? How would I structure the executive bonus if I didn’t know what position I had in the firm or if I were an employee or a customer? When ignorant of our personal best interest, the most rational course is to choose the fairest for all.

Focus on direction, not destination

Focus on direction, not destination. Most progress is a journey, not an event. Indeed, my belief that markets and their morals evolve means there’s never an end point we can reach. It’s therefore vital that we consider the course and the speed at which we’re traveling rather than being obsessed with our arrival. Don’t be dogmatic. Many ethical judgments and the evidence supporting them, are not as clear-cut as leaders would wish. As with parenting, playing soccer, or, for that matter, mastering an instrument—all of us make mistakes. The important thing is that we correct them, responding to feedback and facts rather than digging in our heels.

Beware of moral myopia

Beware of moral myopia. Publicly prominent concerns can often feel compelling, and at times, it’s vital that we react to these with speed and clarity. The recent Black Lives Matter campaign is a good example of how long-overdue progress can follow from a sea change in sentiment. But we should be wary of being too short-sighted. It’s better to set a course and truly steer it than to react to every twist and turn of public opinion. 

Communicate the trade-offs

Communicate the trade-offs. If you need to make compromises, then be clear on what they are and why you’re making them. Explain the mitigation for any negative consequences and how these might lessen over time. This helps everyone understand that doing the right thing is seldom a binary choice.

Have Confidence In Leadership

Returning to those gatherings that are happening as I write, I must be one of the few people who has spent time throughout this crisis in the US, the UK, and mainland Europe. The divergences I’ve experienced in the public’s attitude and mood are striking. In part they reflect cultural characteristics, but I’d suggest that trust in our politicians and advisors is the critical difference. And it seems to me that to win that confidence, leaders of all types must first and foremost show that while the world and the choices we face are invariably imperfect, at least our intentions are good.

Why is it that companies make bad decisions?

why do companies make bad decisions
Originally Published in Fair Value

In posing that question, I’m not referring to those infamous bad calls like Decca Record’s rejection of The Beatles or Blockbuster’s rebuff of a joint venture with Netflix. These are human mistakes— and with the benefit of hindsight, we can, all of us, believe we’d have made a smarter choice.

Rather, what interests me is why, given all the checks and balances, so many companies appear to make carefully thought-through decisions that actively harm the interests of their stakeholders.

A Harvard Business Report estimated that up to 90 percent of all mergers and acquisitions fail; similar claims can be made for internal transformation projects, especially in the IT and digital sphere. Whatever way you look at the problem, it seems that despite access to the smartest minds, sophisticated forecasting tools, and due diligence warnings, business leaders continue to get it wrong.

Observation has taught me there’s no single explanation. But after twenty years of corporate decision-making and with the scars to prove it. I’ve at least become attentive to some of the warning signs.

What follows are, therefore, my insights from experience. Interpret them as you wish, for every situation will be different, which leads nicely to my first observation, which gets straight to the root of the problem.

Complexity

The unfortunate reality is that many strategic decisions are not as binary as whether or not to award a recording contract. Rather, they are multifaceted, involving forecasts of markets, competitors, savings, and synergies. And what’s more, many of the situations are particular to circumstance, so references are seldom available or even helpful if they were.

In these sorts of complex situations, we all and organizations are no different; they resort to simplified solutions that allow for a quicker way through the maze. Academics call these heuristics; we know them as rules of thumb, best estimates, benchmarking, and the like.

The trouble with heuristics is that although they are, to some extent, inevitable, we risk addressing a simpler problem than the one we face worse; our biases and preferences creep into the proposed solution to issues that have been framed for our convenience rather than the reality of the situation.

One antidote so far as any is effective, is to be extremely careful when simplifying or estimating significant variables. Any benchmarks we choose, and assumptions we make must also be modeled over a wide range of outcomes. The greatest danger of heuristics is actually a regression to the mean, where risks and opportunities are smoothed into a safe bet, which in the event, turns out to be anything but.

Impulsiveness

Linked to our tendency to simplify is a pressure to act fueled by a deeply ingrained corporate mindset that regards not doing so as a missed opportunity or cultural failing. Organizations increasingly demand that their leaders move at pace, and while this has its benefits, it can also lead to premature decisions that are ahead of the curve. 

In transformational projects, the term bleeding edge refers to the impact of decisions-typically those involving the early adoption of technology-which lead to unexpected costs and consequences that in turn, harm rather than enhance competitiveness. The underlying assumption is that the supposed “first-mover advantage” inevitably comes with significantly greater risks. In almost any sizable market, the lesson of case study after case study is that a little more patience would often have led to a better outcome.

To some extent, this is as much an institutional as an individual problem. I often sense that companies weigh the regret risk of missed opportunities more heavily than they do the years of successful delivery. Investors—like sports fans-are both impatient for success and quick to point out the triumphs of others. What they are less good at doing is recognizing the potential for pitfalls and giving due regard to the judgment of those who avoid them.

There is no cure-all solution to impulsiveness, but it is good practice to ensure decisions can be made over sensible timeframes, to resist the pressure to lead on every front, and to establish agreed expectations for investment and return over time–and then stick to them!

Reward Versus Risk

At the heart of the type of decisions we’re discussing is the assessment of risk versus reward. Of course, no opportunity of any consequence is a certainty- investors, colleagues, and customers all understand that. It’s also fair to say that most successful executives need to be less risk-averse than, say, librarians. But while that’s a good thing, my experience is that risk and reward assessments are often made in a manner that gives undue weight to one over the other. Think for a moment of all those inspirational quotes you’ve seen at management conferences:

 “Whatever you dream, begin it for boldness has power and magic!” – Goethe. 

“Security is mostly a superstition…” – Hellen Keller

“Do not fear mistakes; there are none!” – Miles Davis 

Extracts like these can be fine as a means to inspire a sales team or encourage creativity, but their underlying message can in my experience, often contribute to a mindset that lionizes risk-taking. I’m not suggesting that the potted wisdom of Miles Davis is taken too literally by senior executives. But when it comes to major strategic decisions, the notion that boldness equates to virtue remains a powerful force and a significant hindrance to a full and objective assessment of downside consequences.

The Dream of Reason

We should also recognize that objectivity is more of an attitude than a destination we ever arrive at. The belief that we can accurately predict the future through analysis and situational modeling alone has been the downfall of many an economist-or for that matter, a politician.

In practice, we live in a less than rational, often emotional, and certainly disruptive world. Companies and organizations can only partially predict the response of others, or indeed, the impact of change on their people and its consequent effect on many other factors, which is why softer considerations are vital.

Culture and Communications

In analyzing harmful decisions, the diagnosis often points less to the actions we have taken than the way we went about them.

For example, bringing together two organizations might seem straightforward on paper, but as with personal relationships, there’s more to a good match than aligning compatible skills and qualities. Too many mergers are predicated on the assumption that the mores of one party can be imposed on the other-giving scant regard to the importance of culture, communication, and values as drivers of performance.

Successful ventures pay attention to these softer qualities, avoiding the imposition of changes that are diametrically opposed to the past or rewarding individuals with extended remits for which they have little understanding.

The same cultural empathy should apply to our search for synergies, sales growth, or even colleague engagement—we should not assume that crashing together, or worse, imposing one style on the other, will bring success.

Think Borg and McEnroe as exceptional tennis players, but at the height of their careers, not the most compatible doubles pairing.

Imbalance of Stakeholders

This understanding of partnership is never more important than in the balance of stakeholder interests. All commercial organizations have at least three key constituencies: their investors, employees, and customers. And while all of these will want the company to prosper, they each have subtly different needs and emphases.

Successful organizations make decisions in a way that ensures all stakeholders take a fair share of the risks and rewards. This means investors accept there are other calls on cash than paying dividends; employees understand that job security comes from embracing change, and customers have realistic expectations on price and value despite the leverage they may have.

Conversely, if the interests of one stakeholder group begin to dominate, it can be a green light to harmful decision-making. Over the lifecycle of a business, there will, of course, be times of different emphasis on the whole; sustainable decisions are founded on meeting the needs of each constituency while avoiding the ascendancy of any.

And Finally… 

I could go on with a host of other reasons…But I’m conscious there’s a limit to the value of observations from experience, and particularly aware that hindsight makes prophets of us all—or, in my case, the best Monday morning quarterback never to grace the field.

Perhaps the most important thing in seeking to understand why so many companies make harmful choices is to recognize it’s not the corporate entity that makes those decisions at all—it is the people!

And, as human beings, we are all equally blessed and susceptible to the paradoxical mix of talents, frailties, and hubris that drive our exceptional achievements and greatest mistakes.

Navigating the Middle Ground

For the last few weeks, we’ve been bombarded with advice on how to make the best use of this period of lockdown. The internet is awash with potted wisdom on how to be more organized, distracted, or upgraded, while my inbox has personalized suggestions ranging from cleaning up the sock drawer to learning a new language or getting that old guitar down from the attic. Meanwhile, events unfold beyond our control in a way that adds to a sense of disempowerment and ennui.

Business Preparation Strategies 

Much the same is true for businesses. Countless articles offer pointers on planning for a post-Covid future or the best online training tools… In the equivalent of the suggestions to tidy our wardrobes, enterprises are urged to catch up on admin or, at the other extreme, prepare strategies to win market share at the expense of their less diligent competitors. For all that the counsel may be well-meaning, it generally misses the mark.

Businesses Always Have Long To-Do Lists

The reason for this will be obvious to anyone who juggles the daily demands of business or, for that matter, family life. While nobody suggests it’s not a virtue to clear our emails or catch up on personal development, the reality is that most organizations get by perfectly well with a long to-do list. And as for developing radical new strategies, it’s a brave, arguably foolhardy enterprise that places any serious bets on a future that’s beyond its knowing.As human beings, we experience the world and perform at our best when navigating the middle ground. You may like me captivated by those popular science documentaries on astronomy or quantum physics, but for all of us, the extremes of time and space are still impossible to fully comprehend. What’s more, even if we could, the knowledge would make little difference to our everyday lives that we are hurtling through space at a million miles an hour won’t save you from a speeding fine, and if you jump that red light, good luck in arguing that color is only a matter of perception!

Daily Navigating Business Decisions

Something similar is equally true of commerce. The day-to-day reality is that success comes less from having perfectly granular policies or all-embracing strategies than it does from the thousands of judgments that are the warp and weft of our trading relationships. It’s this daily grind and the grit in the oyster that comes with it that we understand best; it’s actually what motivates us, what enables us to feel empowered, and what most allows us to shine.

Practical Reasoning

Our need, then, in exiting this crisis, will overwhelmingly be for pragmatism rather than principle, and certainly not dogma. This doesn’t mean we should abandon all structures or strategic vision, but it does suggest we should focus our minds on the underlying purpose of the choices we will need to make. In this sense, the return to a new normal will require a commercial equivalent of the “practical reasoning” that’s advocated by thinkers such as Peter Singer or the late Mary Midgely. Malcolm Gladwell’s recent podcasts on the pliability of Jesuit thinking and its resolution of issues in the context of the world as we actually live it are instructive guides, too.

Keep Partnerships Strong

In re-establishing our trading partnerships, the call to exercise discretion will be greater than ever; cash flow, refunds, sales targets, or staff bonuses, pragmatic solutions, and reciprocal understanding will be the currency of success. Black Swan events term coined by Nassim Nicholas Taleb for major, unforeseen situations we are unprepared for inevitably leave us with a world that’s changed beyond previous experience. But this pandemic is not an extinction event, and it is only by working through the aftershock-instance by instance, customer by customer-that we will find and shape the opportunities that determine our future.

The reason the current lockdown is so difficult for many of us and for our organizations to bear is that despite all the well-meaning advice, no matter how tidy our socks or how ambitious our vision is, only when this quarantine is lifted can we be truly productive again. The people and the enterprises that succeed will not be those with empty inboxes or even the best-laid plans–they will be those who make the smartest calls in the mucky middle ground of decision-making that is the stuff of business as we know it.

Exploring the Tenets of Servant Leadership Interview

jozef opdeweegh in sitting in a black suit pumping his first

Overview: During a conversation with Jos Opdeweegh, a distinguished CEO based in Miami, the concept of Servant Leadership came to the forefront as a paradigm-shifting approach to organizational management. Opdeweegh provided illuminating insights into the limitations inherent in the conventional top-down leadership model, where decision-making authority is confined to a select cadre of executives, often resulting in the marginalization of talented individuals and their perspectives.

Shortcomings of the Conventional Leadership Paradigm

The deficiencies of the traditional leadership framework were glaringly evident, as it accentuated autocratic leadership tendencies and stifled the culture of creativity and open exchange of ideas within the organizational structure. Opdeweegh emphasized that instead of fostering a conducive environment for nurturing high-potential individuals, the traditional approach frequently perpetuated a culture of mediocrity, bolstered by inflexible performance assessment frameworks that inadvertently alienated exceptional talents.

Deconstructing Inefficient Decision-Making within Traditional Management

The contrast between the customary model and the ethos of Servant Leadership gained heightened clarity when examining decision-making processes. While the former relied on a limited echelon of leaders to shape pivotal determinations, Servant Leadership champions a more dynamic, customer-centric decision-making philosophy. Opdeweegh underscored the significance of entrusting decision-making authority to those in proximity to challenges and opportunities, given their comprehensive understanding of the intricacies and their expertise in the subject matter.

Unveiling the Core Tenets of Servant Leadership

In the course of our dialogue, Opdeweegh unveiled the foundational principles that underpin Servant Leadership: an unwavering commitment to fostering the growth and success of individuals within the organization, with a paramount focus on customers, followed closely by colleagues. This approach nurtures a sense of collective responsibility, wherein each member of the organization is viewed as an ambassador, collectively contributing to the shared objective of achieving success.

Embracing Fallibility and Cultivating Empowerment

One of the salient points of discussion revolved around the importance of acknowledging mistakes and their intrinsic connection to empowerment. Opdeweegh stressed that while making errors is inevitable, they hold value when acknowledged and leveraged as learning opportunities. The Servant Leadership framework advocates for a culture of continuous improvement and accountability, empowering individuals to take ownership of their actions and choices.

Concluding Reflections: Embracing the Philosophy of Servant Leadership

The discourse with Jos Opdeweegh yielded profound insights into the merits of adopting Servant Leadership as an all-encompassing, customer-centric, and adaptable approach to steering organizational trajectories. By challenging the established norms of leadership, enterprises have the potential to cultivate an environment that not only retains exceptional talents but also empowers individuals to flourish and make substantial contributions. Servant Leadership, characterized by its emphasis on collaboration, inclusivity, and the transformative power of learning from mistakes, stands poised to shape a more promising future for businesses and their workforce alike.

Models of Creativity: Analysis or Creativity-Fellows or Foes?

Originally Published in Fair Value

President Ronald Reagan, Speaking after talks with Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev at the Reykjavik summit in 1986, infamously said that what was most needed between the superpowers was “Trust… [adding, after a dramatic pause]… but verify!” 

Trust but Verify

The apparent contradiction made headlines around the world, helping to foster an approach that led to the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty and the removal of around 80 percent of the nuclear warheads in existence.This phrase is actually not Reagan’s at all, but an old Russian proverb that serves to illustrate that a counterintuitive tension is often the most effective way to break down those barriers that impede step-change progress. Its wisdom is now commonplace, aided by the growth of technology that gives confidence to more attitudes: “trust trading,” for example, is a standard practice among progressive retail partners; customs checks are made on random samples; we trust our people but verify their output…

How Trust but Verify Applies to Business

All of this is intended as a prompt to reflect on how we might apply similar thinking to our organizations. What, as business leaders, can we do to foster the relationships and environment that supports the creative progress we need? And how do we balance the need for innovation with the equally necessary reassurance that our actions are founded on more than a leap of faith?Fresh thinking is essential to progress. Without it, we stagnate, our horizons narrow, and our competitors overtake us. At a macro level, the impetus for change is essential for human flourishing-it’s no coincidence that when innovation dries up or is curtailed by dogma, we talk of “Dark Ages” or “closed societies.” History is littered with examples of the damage this causes, just as it also confirms the benefits of freethinking and the open society.We all know this, and yet the reality is that when it comes to our own circumstances, creative leaps can be scary and uncertain, evoking what the historian Robert Hughes brilliantly described as “the shock of the new.” His interest lay in the arts, but the same sequence of “disruption, resistance, and progress” is seen in the scientific and industrial revolutions that preceded our modern era. And today, the pattern continues, most obviously in the digital sphere, which has supercharged the speed and reach-but also the risks-of creative innovation.It is a mistake, however, to think of creativity purely in terms of inspirational genius. As James Dyson, the billionaire UK engineer and inventor, has pointed out-practical progress is seldom made in the manner of Archimedes in his bath or Isaac Newton under the apple tree. Rather, it’s an iterative journey that sharpens our notions and intuition through a process of trial, error, and adjustment. Dyson has filed over 4,000 patent applications, and yet he claims none of his ideas were truly unique. What? Made the difference is his commitment to the hard hours of testing and adjustment that irons out the flaws and solves problems in a piecemeal way.Dyson also argues that innovation flourishes most in an atmosphere of creative tension, where ideas are robustly and competitively challenged, often in partnerships or teams, in pursuit of a common goal. We see this pattern time and again in art and science: Picasso andBraque, Darwin and Wallace, Lennon and McCartney… The relevance for business leaders is that innovation works best when it’s integral to, and not isolated from, the day-to-day realities of the organization. Indeed, research has shown that transformation and development teams work most effectively and come up with the most productive ideas-when subject to the same rigorous critique and analysis as our everyday processes.

Ground Break Creativity Is Rare

Ground-breaking creativity is also a rare event-were it is not; then change would simply overwhelm us. The reality is that most great ideas take the form of an inspirational leap which is then refined through marginal gains that make the bigger difference. As an apt illustration, when Dick Fosbury revolutionized the high jump at the 1968 Mexico Olympics, he won by a mere 2cm, clearing 2.24m for gold-today, after universal adoption of and, critically, refinement to his groundbreaking technique-the world record stands at 2.45m.

Creativity Takes Work

These sorts of gains come not from pondering on the stars but from analyzing what works best, finding ways to improve on the idea, and being open to our failures. The writer Matthew Syed explores this idea in his deeply persuasive and accessible book, Black Box Thinking. Syed cites the aviation industry as the ultimate example of progressively learning from both failure and innovation-its embrace of objective analysis taking air travel from what was once the riskiest to what is currently the safest form of mass transportation.

Analysis Helps Creativity

The analysis is, therefore, the bedfellow, and not the bugaboo, of practical creativity. For by measuring and learning, not only do we sort the wheat from the chaff, we also help the good become great or, more often, just that little bit better. Malcolm Gladwell has a wonderful podcast that explores this process through the evolution of Leonard Cohen’s song, “Hallelujah.” The piece took years to gestate, slowly improving its form and lyrics to become one of the most recognized classics in modern songwriting.

Little Bit Better

The operative phrase in the paragraph above is a “little bit better.” That’s something different from reinvention, and yet ironically, it requires a similar mindset. Though on reflection, maybe it’s not ironic at all for now, I think about it, the most analytic people I’ve worked with are among the best innovators -and almost all creatives I know are deeply analytic in their approach.Which brings me back to my opening example. For Ronald Reagan to make the breakthrough with Russia, he needed a creative leap of the type scientist Edward de Bono described when he wrote about shifting perspectives by throwing off old patterns. But to make it work for the gains to truly stick-he needed something more, something that the great American poet, Henry Wadsworth Longfellow, might have taught him- “The heights by great men reached and kept were not attained by sudden flight, but they, while their companions slept, were toiling upward in the night.”